BJP set to win first ever seats in Kerala Assembly next year – Asianet opinion poll

A survey by Kerala’s biggest broadcasting group, Asianet in association with agency C fore, has predicted rising influence for the Bharatiya Janata Party among young voters in Kerala and predicted that the party will send its first ever representatives to the Kerala Assembly in 2016.

UPDATE: Asianet has published a new survey as well. The results are here.

rural
Urban vs Rural

Paradoxically, the biggest beneficiary from the rise of the BJP will be the Congress Party, which gets most of its votes from minority communities in the state.

The BJP’s growth will be fueled by the defection of some Hindu voters from the Left parties in Kerala. This defection in turn will ensure that the Left will not be in a position to defeat the Congress Party, which will continue to remain in power.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front or UDF, however, will get fewer votes than last time because of corruption allegations, the survey found. In all, the UDF will go from 45.8% of total votes four years ago to 43% this time, the survey said.

However, an even more drastic decline will be seen in the vote-share of the Left parties as a section of young Hindu voters choose to go with the BJP. The Left Democratic Front will see its vote share fall to 39% from 43.63%.

education
Non-Graduates vs Graduates

The biggest disruptor will be the BJP, which will increase its voteshare from 6.1% in 2011 to 14% in 2016.

The opinion poll was conducted in the second week of July, and mirror the developments in the Aruvikkara by-poll. In Aruvikkara by-poll, which was held in early July, the Congress Party had a smooth sailing due to a massive fall in the number of Left voters accompanied by a tremendous surge in the number of BJP voters.

review
Rating of Current Govt

Many political pundits believe that the Congress Party is encouraging the growth of the BJP in the Kerala — dividing the opposition (largely Hindu) votes and ensuring that it remains in power.

Kerala has never re-elected any state government since the state was formed about 65 years back. Power has always rotated between the Left Front and the UDF every five years as the voters here are known for kicking out their high levels of dissatisfaction.

That remains the case even now, but BJP’s emergence will ensure continuation of Congress’ rule next year, the survey found. Only 24% of the respondents felt that the performance of the current Congress-led government is “good” or “very good”. In fact, only 4% (out of the 24%) felt the performance was “very good”.

33% felt the government’s performance was bad or very bad, with the others choosing to remain neutral.

Despite this, the survey predicted a total of 73-77 seats for the UDF out of a total of 140 seats, while the LDF will get 61-65 and the BJP will win 3-5 seats.

The BJP has never won a Parliament or State Assembly seat in Kerala.

However, the party is seen as making inroads into young (presumably Hindu) voters of both UDF and LDF.

age
age division

For example, while 19% of voters under 25 years of age prefer the BJP, only 7% of those above 50 years of age would vote for the party.

Proportionately, there is a 7 percentage point decline in the vote share of the Congress Party as one moves from the above-50-year category to the below 25-year category.

Indicating a sharper defection of votes from the LDF to the BJP, there is an 9 percentage point decline as one moves from the above-50-year voter to the below-25-year voter.BJP leader MT Ramesh said the party is not happy with the projected vote shares and it will continue to work with “influential (community) leaders” to iron-out any misunderstandings and increase the party’s votes.

The BJP is currently wooing SNDP – the most influential non-political organization among the Ezhavas – the biggest community within the Hindus. The Ezhavas, who have Buddhist and Jain ancestry, comprise about 50% of all Hindus in Kerala and have traditionally shied away from voting for the BJP. The BJP is also expected to make overtures to the Nairs, who comprise about 22% of the total Hindu votes in the states, in the coming days. Unlike among Ezhavas, the BJP has already managed to make deep inroads of support among Nairs from whom many of the party’s state leaders are drawn.

It is also expected that the Muslim League could break away from Congress Party and form an alliance with the left parties if Left is defeated and the Muslim League gets to nominate the next chief minister of Kerala.



Katju says SP will defeat BJP in UP Elections; Demonetization, Akhilesh to aid Former Supreme Court judge and a keen observer of Indian politics, Markandey Katju has predicted a win for the Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections.BJP, which is seen as a strong contender by many, would be negatively impacted due to the impact of demonetization and the clean image projected by SP chief m...
Mayawati warns Muslims: Akhilesh vs Mulayalam will bring BJP to power Bahujan Samaj Party leader Kumari Mayawati has warned Muslim voters in Uttar Pradesh against continuing to vote for Samajwadi Party, claiming that the current fight between SP leader Mulayam Singh and his son Akhilesh would split their votes in two."I urge you not to let your vote get divided between Akhilesh and Mulayalam groups. If you do that, the...
Hindu fighting for Muslim rights alleges religious discrimination by orthodox Muslims Sreeja NeyyattinkaraSreeja Neyyattinkara, one of the state secretaries of Welfare Party in Kerala, has set off a storm among Dalit and Minority activist circles in Kerala by heavily criticizing some orthodox practices among the Muslims of the state.The criticism has come as a surprise as the Welfare Party is largely comprised of Muslim supporters an...
COLUMN: Why it’s hypocritical for Rahul Gandhi to accuse Narendra Modi of taking money from co... One of the interesting aspects of the current accusations and counter accusations around the alleged funding of BJP's 2014 Lok Sabha campaign by corporate houses is the sheer hypocrisy of it.Let's see why.According to third-party figures, an estimated Rs 23,000 cr was spent by candidates and political parties on the 2014 general election.Assu...
Rahul Gandhi’s gives ‘earthquake evidence’ on Modi After keeping the nation waiting for 10 days, Rahul Gandhi today dropped his 'bomb' on Narendra Modi that he had promised would 'cause an earthquake'.Gandhi said a company based in Uttar Pradesh has written "that Modi has taken money from them multiple times over six months."Quoting income tax investigation reports, Gandhi said: "They have writt...
Demonetization: Modi announces bumper prizes; 15 lakh users to get 1,000 rupees Narendra Modi announced several 'prize schemes' to promote cashless transactions.Under the schemes announced today, there will be two sets of prizes for consumers and another for small merchants.Under the first scheme, any customer who uses any electronic form of payment, including wallets and debit cards, will qualify for a 'lucky draw' of Rs 1,000 ...
Subramanian Swamy attacks Ratan Tata for investing money in Britain Keeping up his attacks on Tata Group interim chairman Ratan Tata, BJP leader Subramanian Swamy fired yet another salvo at the veteran industrialist for investing huge amounts of money into Britain, instead of doing so in India.Tata Steel had acquired UK-based Corus for around 6.2 billion pounds in 2008, making the company the fifth largest steelmaker in ...
Taxes will be made “more reasonable” in cashless India – Jaitley Taxes in India will be made more reasonable as more and more transactions switch to the cashless mode, finance minister Arun Jaitley said."As more and more transactions are made cashless, they will come under taxation.. (and with this) taxes will be made more reasonable, both direct and indirect," Jaitley said today.The finance minister was giving ou...
Allahabad High Court says Triple Talaq ‘unconstitutional’ The Allahabad High Court has today said 'triple talaq' or the divorcing of women under Islamic laws -- is unconstitutional in Indian law.The provision "violates women's rights" and no personal law board is above the Indian constitution, the court said while hearing a petition filed by a Muslim woman from Bulandshahr.The constitution of India assu...
Jayalalitha’s successor: Crucial meet starts at AIADMK headquarters The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhakam (All India Anna Dravidian Progressive Party) started a crucial meeting of its top leadership at 6:30 PM today, minutes after the party hurriedly re-hoisted the flag on its headquarters.All the party's MLA's are attending the meeting.The decision to lower its flag at around 5:30 pm today had led to spec...
Sorrow after Tamil channels say Jayalalitha dead, AIADMK lowers flag The AIADMK has lowered its flag at its headquarters, setting off a frenzy of sorry in Tamil Nadu as desperate followers of Chief Minister J Jayalalitha broke down in tears.UPDATE: The AIADMK has rehoisted its flag after bringing it down initially.There were wailings and sobbings around the Apollo Hospital in Chennai, where Jayalalitha is being tr...
BJP asks all MPs, MLAs to submit bank statement to party As part of the ongoing crackdown on tax evasion and illicit funds, the Bharatiya Janata Party has asked all its MPs and MLAs to submit the full details of their banking transactions from Nov 8 onwards.The central leadership of the party will examine the bank statements of these representatives to check for any illegal or suspicious cash transactions....
7 ILLOGICAL REASONS to oppose DEMONETIZATION The current demonetization move by the Narendra Modi government has seen a lot of accusations and counter-accusations being levelled by both the supporters and opponents of the move.While the government has tried to deal head on with the official accusations levelled by opposition political parties, a much more subtle misinformation campaign is going o...
PM Modi’s official Twitter account gets ambushed by AAP For long, the Bharatiya Janata Party held the upper hand on Twitter -- which -- along with comment boards on news websites -- forms the 'wild west' of political online campaigning in India with large-scale manipulation, 'fake' accounts, bullying and targeted attacks.Not to be outdone, the Aam Aadmi Party -- or some of its supporters -- have hit back by d...
Narendra Modi’s official Twitter account gets ambushed by AAP For long, the Bharatiya Janata Party held the upper hand on Twitter -- which -- along with comment boards on news websites -- forms the 'wild west' of political online campaigning in India with large-scale manipulation, 'fake' accounts, bullying and targeted attacks.Not to be outdone, the Aam Aadmi Party -- or some of its supporters -- have hit back by d...